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Confidence increases despite decline in number of shoppers from mainland

While retailers and landlords lament the loss of mainland consumers over the past few months, a tracking poll of consumer sentiment showed local residents are at their most optimistic about shopping since 2007.

Hong Kong's major political party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), has been running regular surveys on consumer confidence since October 2004.

Having surveyed 675 adults from June 23 to July 3 by fixed-line telephone, the first poll for 2015 released on Monday saw the "prevailing" index for consumer sentiment rising to 74.5, compared with 71 last December and 69.5 last June.

The party adopted a scale on which any score below 100 is deemed negative. But the result has never risen beyond 79 in the last decade. The latest score, albeit falling into the "negative" bracket, already represents the highest level of perceived consumer confidence since October 2007.

Pessimists outnumbered optimists in regard to Hong Kong's economic outlook in a year's time and in five years' time, according to the latest poll. This has been a trend which has dominated the poll since the global financial meltdown in early 2008. But the margin of difference between the two sides was the narrowest for the past five years.

Some 45.3 percent of those surveyed were negative about the economy next year, compared with 16 percent who felt positive. The margin of difference between the two is the smallest since December 2010. Some 36.9 percent of people had a negative view about the economy in five years' time. This was the lowest since March 2008.

People have developed more confidence in the city's economy because they probably feel better about their own purchasing power, the poll showed.

In all but one poll since October 2004, most people suggested their financial situation had worsened in the past year. In the latest poll, 42.7 percent chose this answer, but it was the lowest since March 2007. By contrast, 42.1 percent felt their financial position was no different - the highest level since 2004.

The results come at a time when local retailers and hoteliers are concerned about the loss of big spenders and grocery shoppers from across the border in the first half of the year.

DAB lawmaker Elizabeth Quat Pui-fan attributed the improvement in consumer sentiment to Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying's pledge to concentrate on developing the economy and improve people's livelihoods.

According to the DAB, consumer confidence remains quite low due to social and economic problems.

kahon@chinadailyhk.com

Consumers in Hong Kong have more confidence in the short-term economic environment than they did half a year ago, after the government shifted its focus back to livelihood issues following the constitutional reform exercise. Edmond Tang / China Daily

(HK Edition 07/28/2015 page6)